THE HORIZON TEST

The Horizon Test

Find out how much of a change you can plan now, and how much you'll have to work out as you go.

Use it when You're about to plan a change and want to know how far ahead you can plan it.
It answers Can you write the whole plan now, or only the first steps?
It won't Tell you whether the change is worth doing. The Merit Test does that.
The Horizon Test: a plan that runs to the horizon and then loops

Two kinds of plan

Some changes you can plan start to finish before you begin. A new lockout procedure for one valve type is like that. You know the steps, who needs training, when it goes live and what done looks like. Write the whole plan and work through it.

Other changes you can only plan the first step of. Take crews talking through hazards at handover. You can plan the first two weeks. You can't write week twelve, because it depends on what the crews do in the weeks before it. The plan is a first step, a date to look, and a decision about what comes next.

In an office, a new expense form is the first kind. Managers giving regular feedback is the second. Most changes have some of each. Your horizon is the point where planning stops working and looking has to start. This tool finds it.

Step 1

The change

For example An electronic shift log replacing the paper logbook. A new approval route for purchase requests.

What goes live?

Pick every one that applies.

Step 2

The old way

An open old way

If the old system is switched off, people have to use the new one. If the paper form still works, or a phone call still gets it approved, the old way is still open. People can keep using it.

For example The paper logbook stays on the shelf "just in case". The old spreadsheet is still shared, and people still update it.

Once it's live, can people still get their work done the old way?

Step 3

What done looks like

For example Every crew uses the electronic log at every handover, and the paper book is off the shelf. Purchase requests over the limit go to one approver and clear in two days.

Who to ask

One is whoever asked for this change. The other is someone who will do the new way every day and isn't on the project. People on the same project team tend to agree with each other, so their agreement tells you little.

Would the person who asked for this and someone who has to do it describe "done" the same way?

Step 4

Steps or judgment

Does the new way follow set steps, or does it depend on people judging the situation each time?

For example Set steps: logging a reading, raising a work order, filing an expense claim. Judgment: when to stop a job, when to call for help, when to escalate a customer complaint, how to coach someone.

Step 5

Who has to change

Which groups have to do something differently for this to work?

Name them by role, one per box.

For example Board operators. Field operators. Shift supervisors. Buyers. Budget holders.

Have the people doing this done something like it before?

Step 6

How it starts

Can it start small?

For example A shift pattern, or a system everyone shares, usually has to go everywhere at once. A new handover practice or a new meeting format can usually start with one group.

Step 7

The plan you have

Do you already have a plan for this?